Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
