Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
